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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 21

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 4-A.Seibert 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.94 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model