Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 57

Detroit Lions 6 – Minnesota Vikings 16

(3:43) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 34 for -9 yards (98-D.Wonnum).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.74 EP
72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -2.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EP