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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 20

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 1-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.28 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 20, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model