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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 26

Green Bay Packers 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.74 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model