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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2021-10-10 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

GB
41.6%
CIN
58.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.179 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CIN defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • CIN on 3 more days rest than GB

Predicted Final Score

GB 20
–
CIN 24
Projected margin: CIN by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

GB

Jaire Alexander CB Out Shoulder
Josh Myers C Out Finger
Dennis Kelly T Questionable Illness
Elgton Jenkins G Questionable Ankle

CIN

Xavier Su'a-Filo G Out Knee
Mike Thomas WR Doubtful Ankle
Joe Mixon RB Questionable Ankle
Larry Ogunjobi DT Questionable Knee
Trey Hopkins C Questionable Knee
D'Ante Smith G Questionable Illness
Trae Waynes CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 25
–
CIN 22

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:19 TD CIN (1:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 34-S.Perine for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – CIN 6
  • Q2 11:56 TD GB (11:56) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left to 28-A.Dillon for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – CIN 7
  • Q2 07:29 FG GB (7:29) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. GB 9 – CIN 7
  • Q2 01:09 TD GB (1:09) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 15 – CIN 7
  • Q2 00:50 TD CIN (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – CIN 13
  • Q3 05:49 FG GB (5:49) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. GB 19 – CIN 14
  • Q4 11:24 FG GB (11:24) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. GB 22 – CIN 14
  • Q4 03:32 TD CIN (3:32) 28-J.Mixon right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 22 – CIN 20
  • Q5 02:00 FG GB (2:00) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. GB 25 – CIN 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 44%

    (12:08) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to CIN 6, Center-43-H.Bradley. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 8 for 2 yards (24-I.Yiadom).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (9:50) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to GB 37, Center-46-C.Harris. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 38 for 1 yard (55-L.Wilson).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 47%

    (7:17) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:20) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to CIN 49, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 38%

    (5:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 34-S.Perine to GB 39 for 5 yards (31-A.Amos).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:53) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to GB 38, impetus ends at GB 36, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 11 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 82%

    (7:29) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 19%

    (6:04) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to GB 11, Center-46-C.Harris. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 19 for 8 yards (17-S.Morgan).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 82%

    (5:49) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 12 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 50%

    (:16) 10-K.Huber punts 25 yards to GB 15, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (11:24) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 44%

    (6:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to GB 40 for 2 yards (91-P.Smith; 52-R.Gary).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (2:16) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 39 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 52%

    (:26) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.