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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 26

Green Bay Packers 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.74 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model