4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 41

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.09 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.66 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model