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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 80

Green Bay Packers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to CIN 49, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 37, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model