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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 54

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-J.Waddle.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.90 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP