Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- QB edge to TB: Tom Brady (TB) +0.164 vs Jacoby Brissett (MIA) -0.137 EPA/dropback
- TB offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- MIA defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
MIA
TB
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:21 FG MIA (11:21) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. MIA 3 – TB 0
- Q1 07:09 TD TB (7:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 25-G.Bernard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – TB 6
- Q1 03:21 TD MIA (3:21) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass deep left to 37-M.Gaskin for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – TB 7
- Q2 14:11 FG TB (14:11) 3-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion. MIA 10 – TB 10
- Q2 11:12 TD TB (11:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 81-A.Brown for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-S.Eguavoen]. MIA 10 – TB 16
- Q2 01:51 TD TB (1:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 81-A.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – TB 23
- Q3 07:01 TD MIA (7:01) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass short left to 37-M.Gaskin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 16 – TB 24
- Q4 15:00 TD TB (15:00) 7-L.Fournette right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – TB 30
- Q4 11:55 TD TB (11:55) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-40-N.Needham, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. MIA 17 – TB 37
- Q4 09:03 TD TB (9:03) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 13-M.Evans for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – TB 44
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(11:21) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
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Q2 TB 4th & 16 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 86%
(14:11) 3-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(12:46) 5-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to TB 30, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(8:16) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to TB 23, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel.
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Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EPp(convert) 62%
(12:55) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-J.Waddle.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(14:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to TB 39, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 85-J.Mickens to TB 39 for no gain (86-M.Hollins).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 13 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(7:13) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to TB 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.