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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 57

Miami Dolphins 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to TB 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model