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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 58

Houston Texans 12 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 13-B.Cooks to HOU 48 for 6 yards (27-J.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.02 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 58, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model