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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Houston Texans

HC David Culley
Sunday 2021-10-10 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -8.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

NE
67.6%
HOU
32.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.239 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Davis Mills (HOU) -0.401 vs Mac Jones (NE) -0.037 EPA/dropback
  • NE offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

NE 24
–
HOU 18
Projected margin: NE by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NE

Trenton Brown T Out Calf
Shaquille Mason G Out Abdomen
Shaun Wade CB Out Concussion
Justin Bethel S Questionable Hamstring
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Shoulder
Cody Davis S Questionable Knee
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Hamstring
Nick Folk K Questionable left Knee
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Ankle
Jalen Mills CB Questionable Hamstring
Ronnie Perkins DE Questionable Ankle
Kyle Van Noy LB Questionable Groin

HOU

Rex Burkhead RB Out Hip
Deshaun Watson QB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Back
Brevin Jordan TE Questionable Illness
Danny Amendola WR Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 25
–
HOU 22

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:58 TD HOU (4:58) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 83-A.Auclair for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – HOU 6
  • Q2 14:21 TD NE (14:21) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 37-D.Harris. 37-D.Harris left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – HOU 6
  • Q2 13:09 TD HOU (13:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 15-C.Moore for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-M.Judon]. NE 6 – HOU 12
  • Q2 01:40 FG HOU (1:40) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. NE 6 – HOU 15
  • Q2 00:06 FG NE (:06) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 9 – HOU 15
  • Q3 13:39 TD HOU (13:39) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 18-C.Conley for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Flea flicker NE 9 – HOU 21
  • Q3 08:29 FG NE (8:29) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 12 – HOU 22
  • Q3 01:53 FG NE (1:53) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 15 – HOU 22
  • Q4 09:36 TD NE (9:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 21 – HOU 22
  • Q4 00:17 FG NE (:17) 6-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 25 – HOU 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 64%

    (8:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 31-D.Johnson to NE 30 for 8 yards (32-D.McCourty).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66%

    (4:19) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 13-B.Cooks to HOU 48 for 6 yards (27-J.Jackson).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 49%

    (2:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 18-C.Conley to NE 4 for 40 yards (33-J.Williams).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 95%

    (1:40) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 73%

    (:06) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:55) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to HOU 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at HOU 28 for 11 yards (18-M.Slater). Punt Hangtime: 4.88s

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (10:26) 11-C.Johnston punts 0 yards to HOU 36, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 75%

    (8:29) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 19 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (5:59) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to NE 26, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 39 for 13 yards (51-K.Grugier-Hill). Punt Hangtime: 4.65s

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (1:53) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 64%

    (13:29) 7-K.Fairbairn 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (7:23) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to NE 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski. Punt Hangtime: 4.84s

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (:17) 6-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.