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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 15

Houston Texans 12 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 20% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.48 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 15, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model