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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 34

New England Patriots 6 – Houston Texans 15

What Actually Happened

(:06) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.28 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model