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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 64

Houston Texans 22 – New England Patriots 9

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 11-C.Johnston punts 0 yards to HOU 36, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.12 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP