Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 71

Houston Texans 22 – New England Patriots 12

(5:59) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to NE 26, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 39 for 13 yards (51-K.Grugier-Hill). Punt Hangtime: 4.65s

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.73 EP
78% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model