4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 38

Houston Texans 22 – New England Patriots 15

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 7-K.Fairbairn 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.51 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.98 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model