4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 67

Houston Texans 22 – New England Patriots 22

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to NE 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski. Punt Hangtime: 4.84s

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP