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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 3

New England Patriots 22 – Houston Texans 22

What Actually Happened

(:17) 6-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +3.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.88 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 3, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.89 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP