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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 38

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(8:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 31-D.Johnson to NE 30 for 8 yards (32-D.McCourty).

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.75 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model