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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 99

New Orleans Saints 13 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to NO 47, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. NO-24-D.Washington was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -3.85 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.36 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 99, worth -6.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -3.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 53, worth -3.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model