NO @ WAS — 4th & Data

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Washington Commanders

2-3 HC Ron Rivera

Sunday 2021-10-10 · 13:00 ET FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

48.3%

WAS

51.7%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

WAS defense: +0.171 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
QB edge to WAS: Taylor Heinicke (WAS) +0.236 vs Jameis Winston (NO) +0.151 EPA/dropback
NO defense: -0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
NO offense: -0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
WAS offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NO 23 16–30

–

WAS 24 17–31

Projected margin: WAS by 1 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Elbow

Erik McCoy C Out Calf

WAS

Dyami Brown WR Out Knee

Brandon Scherff G Out Knee

Cam Sims WR Out Hamstring

Daron Payne DT Questionable Toe

Antonio Gibson RB Questionable Shin

Cole Holcomb LB Questionable Shoulder

Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 33

–

WAS 22

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 12:31 FG WAS (12:31) 3-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. NO 0 – WAS 3
Q1 11:23 TD NO (11:23) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep middle to 11-D.Harris for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – WAS 3
Q1 04:58 FG WAS (4:58) 3-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. NO 7 – WAS 6
Q2 14:19 TD WAS (14:19) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-76-S.Cosmi was injured during the play. His return is Probable. NO 7 – WAS 12
Q2 11:05 TD NO (11:05) 41-A.Kamara right tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – WAS 13
Q2 00:08 TD NO (:08) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep right to 1-M.Callaway for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 19 – WAS 13
Q3 01:56 FG WAS (1:56) 3-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. NO 20 – WAS 16
Q4 12:16 TD NO (12:16) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Callaway for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-Jon.Allen]. NO 26 – WAS 16
Q4 07:56 TD WAS (7:56) (Shotgun) 77-S.Charles reported in as eligible. 24-A.Gibson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 27 – WAS 22
Q4 03:21 TD NO (3:21) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 33 – WAS 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 82%

(12:31) 3-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

(4:58) 3-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NO 4th & 11 at the 99

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(6:50) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to NO 47, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. NO-24-D.Washington was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 35

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 63%

(4:18) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (23-M.Lattimore).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NO 4th & 18 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(2:01) 4-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to WAS 1, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 94

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(:19) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to NO 38, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 41-A.Kamara to WAS 49 for 13 yards (47-K.Hudson).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(14:00) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to NO 21, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 41-A.Kamara to NO 35 for 14 yards (47-K.Hudson).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(13:06) 4-B.Gillikin punts 57 yards to WAS 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 78

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP

p(convert) 62%

(9:51) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to NO 31, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 41-A.Kamara to NO 33 for 2 yards (96-J.Smith-Williams; 47-K.Hudson).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(9:24) 4-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to WAS 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at WAS 25 for 10 yards (50-A.Dowell; 45-G.Griffin).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

(1:56) 3-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(14:09) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to WAS 2, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-88-T.Montgomery.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 WAS 4th & 14 at the 49

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 26%

(10:08) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 1-D.Carter to NO 23 for 26 yards (43-M.Williams).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 73%

(6:12) 2-J.Winston left guard to NO 36 for 2 yards (90-M.Sweat).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 48 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 29%

(2:50) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin.
See the full breakdown →

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