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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2021-10-10 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NO
48.0%
WAS
52.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS defense: +0.171 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Taylor Heinicke (WAS) +0.236 vs Jameis Winston (NO) +0.151 EPA/dropback
  • NO defense: -0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 23
–
WAS 24
Projected margin: WAS by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Elbow
Erik McCoy C Out Calf

WAS

Dyami Brown WR Out Knee
Brandon Scherff G Out Knee
Cam Sims WR Out Hamstring
Daron Payne DT Questionable Toe
Antonio Gibson RB Questionable Shin
Cole Holcomb LB Questionable Shoulder
Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 33
–
WAS 22

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:31 FG WAS (12:31) 3-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. NO 0 – WAS 3
  • Q1 11:23 TD NO (11:23) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep middle to 11-D.Harris for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – WAS 3
  • Q1 04:58 FG WAS (4:58) 3-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. NO 7 – WAS 6
  • Q2 14:19 TD WAS (14:19) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-76-S.Cosmi was injured during the play. His return is Probable. NO 7 – WAS 12
  • Q2 11:05 TD NO (11:05) 41-A.Kamara right tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – WAS 13
  • Q2 00:08 TD NO (:08) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep right to 1-M.Callaway for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 19 – WAS 13
  • Q3 01:56 FG WAS (1:56) 3-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. NO 20 – WAS 16
  • Q4 12:16 TD NO (12:16) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Callaway for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-Jon.Allen]. NO 26 – WAS 16
  • Q4 07:56 TD WAS (7:56) (Shotgun) 77-S.Charles reported in as eligible. 24-A.Gibson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 27 – WAS 22
  • Q4 03:21 TD NO (3:21) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 33 – WAS 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 82%

    (12:31) 3-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (4:58) 3-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 11 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:50) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to NO 47, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. NO-24-D.Washington was injured during the play.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 63%

    (4:18) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (23-M.Lattimore).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 18 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:01) 4-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to WAS 1, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:19) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to NO 38, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 41-A.Kamara to WAS 49 for 13 yards (47-K.Hudson).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:00) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to NO 21, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 41-A.Kamara to NO 35 for 14 yards (47-K.Hudson).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:06) 4-B.Gillikin punts 57 yards to WAS 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (9:51) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to NO 31, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 41-A.Kamara to NO 33 for 2 yards (96-J.Smith-Williams; 47-K.Hudson).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:24) 4-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to WAS 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at WAS 25 for 10 yards (50-A.Dowell; 45-G.Griffin).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (1:56) 3-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:09) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to WAS 2, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-88-T.Montgomery.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 14 at the 49
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 26%

    (10:08) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 1-D.Carter to NO 23 for 26 yards (43-M.Williams).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (6:12) 2-J.Winston left guard to NO 36 for 2 yards (90-M.Sweat).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 29%

    (2:50) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin.