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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 35

Washington Commanders 13 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(4:18) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (23-M.Lattimore).

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.28 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model