Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 72

Washington Commanders 13 – New Orleans Saints 20

(14:00) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to NO 21, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 41-A.Kamara to NO 35 for 14 yards (47-K.Hudson).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model