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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 60

New Orleans Saints 20 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 4-B.Gillikin punts 57 yards to WAS 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.33 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model