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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 78

Washington Commanders 13 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to NO 31, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 41-A.Kamara to NO 33 for 2 yards (96-J.Smith-Williams; 47-K.Hudson).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.00 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 35, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP