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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 20 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 4-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to WAS 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at WAS 25 for 10 yards (50-A.Dowell; 45-G.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.10 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model