4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 55

New Orleans Saints 20 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to WAS 2, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-88-T.Montgomery.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.69 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model