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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 49

Washington Commanders 16 – New Orleans Saints 27

What Actually Happened

(10:08) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 1-D.Carter to NO 23 for 26 yards (43-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.57 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP