Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 48

Washington Commanders 22 – New Orleans Saints 33

What Actually Happened

(2:50) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.10 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -1.90 EP

KICK -0.78 EP

29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
71% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model