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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 5

Washington Commanders 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 3-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.28 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 5, worth +0.42 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP