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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 40

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 84-C.Patterson up the middle to NYJ 28 for 12 yards (26-B.Echols; 39-J.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.70 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model