Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NYJ offense: -0.291 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- Neutral site — no home-field edge
- ATL defense: +0.150 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) -0.028 vs Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.298 EPA/dropback
- ATL offense: -0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- NYJ crossing 5 time zone(s)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
NYJ
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:51 FG ATL (8:51) 7-Y.Koo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt. NYJ 0 – ATL 3
- Q1 01:47 TD ATL (1:47) 69-J.Spriggs reported in as eligible. 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – ATL 9
- Q2 11:06 TD ATL (11:06) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 81-H.Hurst for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – ATL 16
- Q2 02:18 FG NYJ (2:18) 6-M.Ammendola 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead. NYJ 3 – ATL 17
- Q2 00:02 FG ATL (:02) 7-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt. NYJ 3 – ATL 20
- Q3 11:00 TD NYJ (11:00) (Shotgun) 25-T.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – ATL 20
- Q4 06:59 TD NYJ (6:59) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 15 – ATL 20
- Q4 02:26 TD ATL (2:26) 28-M.Davis left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-95-Q.Williams, Defensive Holding, declined. NYJ 17 – ATL 26
- Q4 00:22 FG NYJ (:22) 6-M.Ammendola 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead. NYJ 20 – ATL 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 53%
(11:27) 84-C.Patterson up the middle to NYJ 28 for 12 yards (26-B.Echols; 39-J.Wilson).
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Q1 ATL 4th & 11 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%
(8:51) 7-Y.Koo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58%
(7:10) 4-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to ATL 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 57%
(:09) 4-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to ATL 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 17-O.Zaccheaus pushed ob at ATL 23 for 15 yards (85-T.Wesco).
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%
(2:18) 6-M.Ammendola 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 68%
(:02) 7-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(8:55) 12-D.Colquitt punts 24 yards to NYJ 36, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 39%
(6:42) 4-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to ATL 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 17-O.Zaccheaus.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(:41) 4-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to ATL 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 17-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 31 for 4 yards (35-S.Neasman, 43-D.Phillips).
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Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 47%
(9:37) 12-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to NYJ 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.