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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 45

New York Jets 9 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 4-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to ATL 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 17-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.28 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model