Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 81

New York Jets 9 – Atlanta Falcons 20

(:41) 4-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to ATL 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 17-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 31 for 4 yards (35-S.Neasman, 43-D.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 81, worth -4.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model