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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 13

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 7-Y.Koo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.47 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 13, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model