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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 64

New York Jets 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(:09) 4-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to ATL 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 17-O.Zaccheaus pushed ob at ATL 23 for 15 yards (85-T.Wesco).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.53 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 22, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP