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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 1

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 5-T.Lance sacked at ARI 1 for 0 yards (sack split by 51-T.Vallejo and 9-I.Simmons). ARI-9-I.Simmons was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +3.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model