Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SF offense: +0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- ARI offense: +0.187 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- ARI defense: -0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- QB edge to SF: Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.297 vs Trey Lance (SF) +0.415 EPA/dropback (SF starting Trey Lance in place of Jimmy Garoppolo)
- SF defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
SF
ARI
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:06 TD ARI (9:06) 6-J.Conner left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – ARI 6
- Q2 05:31 FG ARI (5:31) 5-M.Prater 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. SF 0 – ARI 10
- Q3 01:49 TD SF (1:49) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – ARI 10
- Q4 05:19 TD ARI (5:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – ARI 16
- Q4 04:17 FG SF (4:17) 14-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 10 – ARI 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 73%
(4:51) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance left tackle to ARI 33 for 1 yard (25-Z.Collins).
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Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(2:39) 14-A.Lee to ARI 25 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ARI 26. 14-A.Lee punts 56 yards to SF 6, downed by ARI-29-J.Ward.
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Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(11:34) 5-T.Lance sacked at ARI 1 for 0 yards (sack split by 51-T.Vallejo and 9-I.Simmons). ARI-9-I.Simmons was injured during the play.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%
(5:31) 5-M.Prater 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
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Q2 SF 4th & 11 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(3:54) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to ARI 18, Center-46-T.Pepper. 4-R.Moore to ARI 30 for 12 yards (49-T.Cannon).
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Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EPp(convert) 65%
(14:01) 14-A.Lee punts 47 yards to SF 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 21 for 1 yard (47-E.Turner). PENALTY on ARI-47-E.Turner, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at SF 21.
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Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 59%
(9:12) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short left to 6-M.Sanu to ARI 34 for 6 yards (33-A.Hamilton) [39-J.Whittaker].
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Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 88Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 53%
(5:22) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to SF 36, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 41 for 5 yards (26-E.Benjamin; 29-J.Ward).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 34%
(14:17) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.
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Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 39%
(9:23) Direct snap to 44-K.Juszczyk. 44-K.Juszczyk up the middle to ARI 48 for no gain (94-Z.Allen).
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Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 39%
(7:53) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete short middle to 19-D.Samuel (99-J.Watt).
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Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 29 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 82%
(4:17) 14-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.