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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 3

Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 5-M.Prater 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +3.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP