Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 76

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(3:54) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to ARI 18, Center-46-T.Pepper. 4-R.Moore to ARI 30 for 12 yards (49-T.Cannon).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model