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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(9:12) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short left to 6-M.Sanu to ARI 34 for 6 yards (33-A.Hamilton) [39-J.Whittaker].

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.54 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model