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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 14-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.81 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model