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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 34

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:51) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance left tackle to ARI 33 for 1 yard (25-Z.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.61 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model