Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(2:39) 14-A.Lee to ARI 25 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ARI 26. 14-A.Lee punts 56 yards to SF 6, downed by ARI-29-J.Ward.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.34 EP
50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model