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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 15

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(:46) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.26 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model