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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2021-10-17 · 16:05 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

ARI
53.4%
CLE
46.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CLE offense: +0.141 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Baker Mayfield (CLE) +0.138 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.266 EPA/dropback
  • Wind 23 mph
  • ARI defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 24
–
CLE 23
Projected margin: ARI by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

ARI

Zach Ertz TE Out Not Injury Related
Rodney Hudson C Out Ribs
Tanner Vallejo LB Out Hand
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Ribs
Chase Edmonds RB Questionable Shoulder
Jordan Hicks LB Questionable Toe
Byron Murphy CB Questionable Ribs
Marco Wilson CB Questionable Ribs

CLE

Nick Chubb RB Out Calf
Malcolm Smith LB Out Abdomen
Jack Conklin T Questionable Knee
Jedrick Wills T Questionable Ankle
Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Elbow
Myles Garrett DE Questionable Knee
A.J. Green CB Questionable Shoulder
Kareem Hunt RB Questionable Wrist
Takkarist McKinley DE Questionable Ankle
Greg Newsome CB Questionable Calf
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Knee
Denzel Ward CB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 37
–
CLE 14

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:40 TD ARI (8:40) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 14:56 TD ARI (14:56) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – CLE 0
  • Q2 13:06 FG ARI (13:06) 5-M.Prater 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 17 – CLE 0
  • Q2 09:29 FG ARI (9:29) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 20 – CLE 0
  • Q2 05:11 TD CLE (5:11) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – CLE 6
  • Q2 00:46 FG ARI (:46) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 23 – CLE 7
  • Q2 00:03 TD CLE (:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – CLE 13
  • Q3 03:01 TD ARI (3:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 29 – CLE 14
  • Q4 04:52 TD ARI (4:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-A.Green for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 36 – CLE 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:46) 7-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to ARI 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 4-R.Moore pushed ob at ARI 26 for 4 yards (22-G.Delpit).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 94%

    (4:34) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at ARI 22 for -9 yards (58-J.Hicks).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 90%

    (13:06) 5-M.Prater 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 61%

    (9:29) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 14 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (:46) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:59) 14-A.Lee punts 44 yards to CLE 25, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-D.Felton to CLE 33 for 8 yards (31-C.Banjo, 86-D.Harris).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 18 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:49) 7-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to ARI 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 4-R.Moore pushed ob at ARI 27 for 4 yards (29-H.Miller).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (10:06) 14-A.Lee punts 57 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-D.Felton to CLE 32 for 21 yards (49-K.Fitts, 59-J.Walker).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:24) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to CLE 49 for 4 yards (20-M.Wilson).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

    (12:10) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 13-O.Beckham (23-R.Alford). CLE-27-K.Hunt was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63%

    (3:58) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 10-A.Schwartz (23-R.Alford).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 25 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 80%

    (2:20) (Shotgun) 29-J.Ward left guard to CLE 19 for 6 yards (92-S.Day; 96-J.Elliott).