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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 23 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 14-A.Lee punts 44 yards to CLE 25, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-D.Felton to CLE 33 for 8 yards (31-C.Banjo, 86-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 69, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 27, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP