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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 55

Cleveland Browns 14 – Arizona Cardinals 30

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to CLE 49 for 4 yards (20-M.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.63 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model